Abu Dhabi, UAE, 16 October 2026: The UAE economy could see a sharp rise in growth in 2027, with the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) forecasting real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 10.4%. The outlook comes as Governor Khaled Mohamed Balama attends the October meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group in Bangkok.
The CBUAE’s September 2026 Quarterly Economic Review raised its 2027 growth forecast from 9.8% to 10.4%. This compares with expected growth of 1.6% in 2026. The updated outlook points to faster economic activity next year, led by higher oil production and continued growth across non-oil sectors.
Higher Oil Production Expected to Drive Growth
A major factor behind the forecast is the expected expansion of the UAE’s hydrocarbon sector. The CBUAE projects that this sector could grow by 26.8% in 2027, supported by higher oil production and a return to more normal production conditions.
The central bank expects hydrocarbon activity to grow by 2.4% in 2026. The difference between the two years shows how changes in oil output could affect the country’s overall economic performance.
Non-oil activity is also expected to remain important. The CBUAE forecasts non-oil growth of 4.9% in 2027, compared with 1.3% in 2026. This reflects the wider role of trade, financial services, construction and other business activities in the UAE economy.
Federal Budget Supports the Economic Outlook
The UAE’s latest federal budget adds to the economic picture. On 12 October, the UAE Cabinet approved a budget of AED 292.5 billion for 2027 to 2029. Planned spending for 2027 stands at AED 90.1 billion.
The budget covers areas such as education, healthcare, infrastructure, housing and social services. These priorities support the government’s wider development plans.
The CBUAE’s Financial Institution Resilience Package and Dubai’s AED 2.5 billion support initiative also form part of the wider economic context. However, the 10.4% growth figure remains a forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.
What the Growth Outlook Means for Businesses
The projected rise may encourage companies to review their expansion plans, investment needs and operating costs. However, economic growth does not guarantee higher sales or profits for every business.
Companies should use business budgeting and forecasting to test different growth scenarios and estimate future costs. Reliable bookkeeping services can help them track income, expenses and cash flow, while accounts payable and receivable management can support better control over payments and outstanding balances.
Businesses should also review their corporate tax compliance and VAT compliance processes as operations change. Incomplete records, missed reporting duties or poor cash-flow planning can create avoidable financial pressure. Regular reviews help companies identify gaps before they affect daily operations.
How DBTA Can Help Businesses Prepare
Dubai Business and Tax Advisors (DBTA) supports UAE businesses with budgeting and forecasting, bookkeeping, and tax advisory services. These services can help business owners understand their financial position, maintain organised records and plan for future needs.
The UAE’s 2027 growth forecast signals the potential for stronger economic activity. Businesses can prepare by reviewing their finances, keeping accurate records and making expansion decisions based on their own performance and current market conditions.
